Of past, present and future

5th April 2020

To lock down or not lock down, that is the question. It certainly isn't the lockdown we've seen in some other countries. Work from home unless its essential, says HMG but what is essential? The timber merchant in Tansley went from business as normal to 'no yard sales, telephone orders only' to 'finishing delivering current orders and closing down for the duration' in 48 hours. The builders merchants adjacent to Darley Dale station declared they were delivering to 'trade customers only' and keep their gates locked. I went in to the Sheffield hauliers to collect the pallet which had returned from the customer I mentioned last week, and the traffic office was about 50% staffed, so leaving two metres between each but without thinking someone came over to the counter to deal with the paperwork. My electrical wholesalers is 'working as normal' (so only a counter width away there) and the powder coaters passed me the finished items hand to hand. Meanwhile at a petrol station, I kept the purchase low so as to go contactless; the proprietor was wearing disposable rubber gloves and kept as much distance from me as he could. But our local chippy, despite being able to trade as it is take-away, has closed down also.

I heard reports today that with the weather being nice, Matlock was 'busy' and although many cyclists are out (a lot more cyclists up our way, I think, taking advantage of the relatively traffic-free roads) I'm told many were on foot. So what is essential? Derbyshire Police had their share of criticism for 'shaming' people who went into a wide open space to exercise, yet every Police car I see pass me has two officers in as usual, and those front seats are not 2 metres apart. So what is essential? With the timber and builders merchants effectively closed, I ordered timber required for some improvement work to the fence from Wickes, whose stores may be closed but who continue to deliver to homes through courier services, though the website was struggling with demand and the delay from order to delivery has been 10 days. Did Wuhan have the likes of DPD and TNT whizzing around delivering goods to all and sundry? And are they accidentally delivering the virus too?

As far as I know, all UK Heritage railways have closed down, just when they were about to start up following the 'lean spell' from Christmas. I said weeks ago that we could 'forget Easter' and the way it is now looking, both the May bank holidays too. For HMG's policy of slowing the rate of travel that the virus makes through the population in order to prevent a rapid rise in cases that might overwhelm NHS resources means that the time frame for rise and fall of the epidemic is stretched out longer. It started in December in Wuhan and only at the end of last month did China remove the brakes (and was that to soon, as they've reported a rise in fresh cases?) - that's roughly 3 months of initially uncontrolled but then imposing the strictest lockdown anywhere. It is not scare-mongering to suggest that the epidemic here will last for longer and may effectively wipe-out the entire summer season as far as heritage railways are concerned.

For during this 'semi-lockdown' firms will go bust, people will lose their jobs and their incomes. For every one who is paid their 'regular' salary and actually finds themselves better off (less travel costs working from home, no opportunity to socialise or spend money on entertainments such as eating out, cinema, sporting fixtures and so on) there will be others who get through this with depleted bank accounts and wondering what the future holds. So when the epidemic is 'over' will everybody suddenly leap up and go on holiday? The airlines and tourist industry will be hoping so, but there will be a lot of reluctance to visit countries where Covid 19 was rampant ('I got through the last 6 months without catching that virus, I'm not going to ... and catch it there') so there may be a gradual increase in home tourism - weather permitting - where you are not far from home if the coughing and sweating suddenly takes hold. Sure, HMG is offering bail-outs for businesses hit by the virus, but these are for the most part loans, not grants, and you need to produce Business Plans as part of your application. Quite how anyone can compile a Business Plan in the face of 'how long will it last, how soon will restrictions be lifted, how soon will customers feel confident enough to go out and spend again?' is something I wouldn't like to attempt.

No surprise therefore that several of the heritage railways are appealing for funds to help tide them over. I've seen refrence to Severn Valley, Talyllyn, Festiniog/Welsh Highland and Ecclesbourne and no doubt there are others. And what about the longer term? This is a major disruption to economic life. Although HMG may attempt to re-invigorate the economy as the crisis subsides, it is not unreasonable to assume that most firms will put major investments on hold to see just how the economy picks up after and whether the commercial landscape has changed. Peak Rail, for example, has made much of the 'quarry consortium' which they say is to reinstate the whole railway from Rowsley to Buxton. Now, personally I remain cynical, because I don't think the economics actually stack up, and because Network Rail has already indicated a preference for the Ashbourne line if a new southern route for stone out of Buxton is actually required, if only because the latter has fewer tunnels and avoids Derby. But either way no company is going to invest millions in such a project when the economic future is hidden in a cloud. Meanwhile, the MEMRAP campaign which Peak Rail vehemently opposes has moved on with the formation of Peaks and Dales Railway Ltd - see here.

So, what have I been up to. The trouble is that what I have been doing is scarcely photogenic. For although I have spent several afternoons pottering (and most of the weekend) what I have been up to has included general tidying (but you'd hardly notice) bits on a resale loco in the workshop (which I don't really report on) and so forth. OK, the transmission for Adolf returned from the contractors who'd run a test on it to prove it is OK. (We couldn't get it to work in the 03, but we couldn't get its replacement to function either. It transpired that the testers somehow had a higher control oil pressure than we could get in the loco and once we shimmed the relief valve, the 03 was up and running. The test on the original transmission therefore was just a formality.) But it arrived on a stillage and thoroughly cocooned in thick plastic, so not very photogenic.

On the other hand, Andrew bid on-line and acquired for me a secondhand Cummins 855 for a good price (i.e cheap) which I suppose I could take a photo of it you like that sort of thing.

Bala Lake Railway features in this blog normally about once a year when I make the pilgrimage to attend what is/was the shareholders' meetings, or the Maid Marian Loco Fund meetings (or both). Lately the current editor of Llanuwchllyn Express approached me about b&w photos he had been passed which he wanted to use in the magazine and which he had been told might be mine. That has timed in with my purchasing a new scanner which is able to copy 35mm negs and slides, so I've have spent some time this week scanning old pictures of the railway for his benefit, plus some industrial stuff for a thread on RMWeb. Thus the two pictures only that I offer this week come from my photo archives: a photo of a Kerr Stuart Wren on train by the lake and the more usual Hunslet Quarry Tank when exchanging tokens at Llangower.

This may presage a bit of nostalgia to come over the next few weeks as we wait out to see whether the virus will get us or not. Hopefully, if I'm not sweatng and coughing, I'll be here next week. See ya then.